- 2018年01月03日14:21 来源：互联网
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The internal combustion engine had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world
“Human inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893.
Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July.
The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics.
Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds.
The clear winner was the internal combustion engine.
Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.
But its days are numbered.
Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead.
In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so.
Today's electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better.
The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge.
雪佛兰闪电(Chevy Bolt)有382公里的最大行程;特斯拉的粉丝日前单独充了一次电，就让Model S 跑了1000多公里。
UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer.
It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today.
Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today.
Regulations are tightening, too.
Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.
The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long.
The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.
To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life.
The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants.
Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car.
Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere.
There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels.
Though most of them sit idle, America's car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations.
The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.
But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil.
Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany.
Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels.
That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers.
Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop.
With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink.
While today's carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered.
Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.
Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all.