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【每日晨读】经济学人GRE双语阅读 科技股重获信息泡沫时代高点

2017年12月21日11:40 来源:互联网
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【每日晨读】经济学人GRE双语阅读 科技股重获信息泡沫时代高点图1

Buttonwood——Hope rebooted

梧桐树专栏:重燃希望

Tech stocks have regained their dotcom-era highs.

科技股已经重获了信息泡沫时代的高点。

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Cast your mind back to when Bill Clinton was president, Tony Blair and Vladimir Putin were fresh-faced new leaders and tweeting was strictly for the birds.

回想一下克林顿当美国总统,布莱尔和普京还是稚嫩的新领导人,tweeting只是用来形容鸟儿叫声的词语的时代。

That was when technology stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 tech index, last traded at their current levels.

以标准普尔500指数来计算,那时候的科技股交易量和现在差不多。

The horrendous decline in share prices that followed the peak in 2000 was the first financial calamity of this millennium.

新世纪的第一次经济灾难是2000年股票价格从顶点疯狂下跌。

The dotcom crash had much less impact on the broader economy than the mortgage and banking crisis of 2007-08.

互联网股票市场的崩溃对整个经济的影响远没有像2007-08年房贷款和银行业危机对经济造成的影响严重。

Nevertheless, the tech revival has caused some twitchiness among investors.

然而,科技复兴还是引起一些投资者的警惕。

Might history be repeating itself?

那么历史还会重演吗?

In the intervening years the world, and the tech industry, have changed a lot.

在这些年间,世界和科技行业都发生了很大的变化。

In the late 1990s enthusiasm for tech shares was so GREat that the sector's market value rose far faster than its earnings.

二十世纪90年代,人们对科技股的投资热情空前高涨,以至于科技股的行业市值远远超过了它带来的收益。

The gap is nothing like as great today.

今天两者差距远没有当时那么大。

Back then, leading firms like Microsoft and Oracle were valued at more than 20 times their annual revenues, let alone earnings.

当时,像微软和甲骨文这些主要的公司市值被估算为其年收入的20倍以上,更不用说它的利润了。

This time around, with the exception of Facebook, price-to-revenue ratios are much less stretched.

而现在除了Facebook,股价收入比率并不是很大。

What boosted tech businesses in the late 1990s was that everyone was discovering the internet at the same time.

二十世纪90年代末期促进高科技企业发展的原因是当时所有人都在探索互联网。

Both companies and consumers were buying computers and associated items like modems.

公司和消费者都在买电脑和如调节调制器这样的关联件。

That led to rapid revenue growth.

这就导致收入的快速增长。

But the sudden enthusiasm for tech was also its greatest weakness; every college graduate seemed to have a plan to start a dotcom company.

但是对科技的突然热情也是最大的弱点;每一个大学毕业生都计划开一家网络公司。

【每日晨读】经济学人GRE双语阅读 科技股重获信息泡沫时代高点图2

The market became overcrowded.

市场变得异常拥挤。

Investors struggled to tell the long-term winners from the losers.

投资人也在努力辨别长期的赢家和输家。

Since then, investors have focused their enthusiasm on companies that can exploit “network effects” and become dominant in their sector—Google in internet search, for example.

从此,投资人将热情放在有“网络效益”且在他们的领域里占领导地位的公司,比如在网络搜索方面的谷歌公司。

The latest rally has been led by a small number of stocks, sometimes dubbed the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google's parent, Alphabet) and sometimes FAAMG (replacing Netflix with Microsoft).

最近的一次科技行业股价反弹时由少数股票引起的,有时是人们说的FAANGs(Facebook,Amazon,Apple,Netflix and Google's parent,Alphabet)有时候是FAAMG(把Netflix换成Microsoft)。

In June Goldman Sachs said this latter group had been responsible for 40% of the S&P 500 index's gains in the year to that point.

六月高盛集团指出,后者承担了今年标普500指数40%的涨幅。

The tech industry was Wall Street's best performer in the first half of the year.

今年上半年高科技产业在华尔街出尽了风头。

Eddie Perkin of Eaton Vance, a fund-management company, says that investors started the year with too much enthusiasm for the “Trump trade”, the idea of owning stocks that might benefit from the new president's policies.

这家公司说投资者带着满腔热情运营特朗普贸易,拥有股票的想法可能得益于新总统的政策。

Companies with high tax bills, and those exposed to infrastructure spending, were two examples.

交高税额和投入资金进行基础设施建设的公司是两个这样的例子。

As hopes for action from the new administration faded, enthusiasm for tech stocks surged; this industry can generate profits growth regardless of the economic outlook.

随着对新政府出台的政策的期待减弱,对科技股的热情高涨,无论整个市场经济前景怎么样这个行业都能产生利润增长。

Tech companies in the S&P 500 are likely to record double-digit year-on-year profits growth in the second quarter.

标普500指数里的科技企业有可能在第二季度创造同比利润增长达到两位数的记录。

Earnings expansion on that scale means that few investors can afford to ignore tech stocks.

那种程度的利润扩增意味着几乎没有投资者会忽视科技股。

Since 2009 the industry has been the most favoured by global fund managers for 80% of the time, according to a regular survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

根据美洲银行Merrill Lynch的一个调查显示自2009年开始在80%情况下,科技股受到全球投资者的亲睐。

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