- 2016年07月01日01:30 来源：小站教育作者：orangejojo
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The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of Bargain Brand Cereals.
"One year ago we introduced our first product, Bargain Brand breakfast cereal. Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies. Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit. Given our success in selling cereal, we recommend that Bargain Brand now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
文本大意：1年前我们推出了第一种产品Bargain Brand早餐麦片，我们非常低廉的价格迅速从一些销量最大的麦片厂商那里吸引了大量客户。尽管这些生产顶级品牌的厂商曾经试图通过降低价格来与我们竞争，并且有一些公司打算推出他们自己的廉价品牌，但我们从不需要通过涨价来维持赢利。基于销售麦片的成功，我们建议Bargain Brand尽快扩展业务，开始推出其他的廉价品牌。
Non-causal relationship. 无因果。The director unfairly assumes that it is the low price of Bargain Brand that attracted those customers.
Incomplete information. 信息不完整。The argument contains no information concerning the actual profits of the company after Bargain Brand cereal was introduced, thus we cannot evaluate whether the cereal selling strategy was successful.
Inferring a future condition from a past condition. 从过去推知未来。The director over-optimistically assumes that the strong sales of Bargain Brand breakfast cereal last year will continue in the following years.
Changing scopes. 差异范围草率推广。The director hastily assumes that the company will succeed in selling other food products through their low-price strategy.